The Verdict
The xG doesn't fully support the market — Crystal Palace actually create more (2.37 xG/game) than Fiorentina (1.61). Crystal Palace at 2.92 could offer value. With 34 bookmakers unable to separate these two, the draw at 3.46 (29% implied) deserves serious consideration.
Best bet: Crystal Palace to win at 2.92
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Thursday 16 April at 19:00 | Conference League
Fiorentina sit 15th in the Conference League on 9 points. Their visitors Crystal Palace are 10th on 10. Fiorentina's recent form reads LWLLW. Crystal Palace come in with DWLWL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Fiorentina | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 10th |
| Points | 9 | 10 |
| Record | 3W 0D 3L | 3W 1D 2L |
| Goals Scored | 8 (1.3/game) | 11 (1.8/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 5 (0.8/game) | 6 (1/game) |
| Goal Difference | +3 | +5 |
| xG | 17.8 (1.61/game) | 26.1 (2.37/game) |
| xGA | 14.7 (1.34/game) | 7.4 (0.68/game) |
| Form | LWLLW | DWLWL |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina Win | 2.71 | 37% | 2.72 | 39% |
| Draw | 3.46 | 29% | 3.44 | 29% |
| Crystal Palace Win | 2.92 | 34% | 2.93 | 35% |
Based on 34 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Fiorentina.
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