Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Model Accuracy

Football Prediction Track Record & Accuracy Stats

Full transparency. Every prediction tracked and settled.

5,800 data points tracked · 5 products · Updated every 60s

Calibration

Predicted probability vs actual win rate — a well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal

ECE

3.5%

0%25%50%75%100%perfect16%30-40%n=1954%50-60%n=33069%60-70%n=12196%70-80%n=2780-90%n=2Predicted ProbabilityActual Win Rate
Actual win rate
Predicted (expected)
Perfect calibration

Model Comparison

Accuracy breakdown by prediction model type

ModelSettledWinsHit RateAvg OddsAvg Edge
Ensemble47027458.3%1.74+-3.1pp
xG Ensemble211571.4%1.60+1.1pp
NBA Combined7342.9%1.77+9.4pp

Model Wars

209 settled

Three AI models compete daily — points for correct result (+3), scoreline (+5), BTTS (+1)

LEADER

Claude

189

total points

Hit Rate

50%

Avg Pts

2.7

Scorelines

9

Grok

154

total points

Hit Rate

42.9%

Avg Pts

2.2

Scorelines

5

GPT-5

139

total points

Hit Rate

36.2%

Avg Pts

2.0

Scorelines

5

Predictions by League

Hit rate breakdown across leagues

Primeira-Liga
60%
39/65
La-Liga
56.3%
36/64
Serie-A
41.7%
25/60
Ligue-1
57.1%
28/49
Championship
63.6%
28/44
Bundesliga
73.7%
28/38
Eredivisie
54.1%
20/37
Premier-League
58.8%
20/34
Super-Lig
51.6%
16/31
Champions-League
61.9%
13/21
Scottish-Premiership
81.3%
13/16
Fa-Cup
76.9%
10/13

Predictions by Market

Hit rate across match result, BTTS, and over/under markets

MarketSettledWinsHit RateAvg OddsAvg Edge
Both Teams To Score1819854.1%1.80+2.0pp
Match Result17110360.2%1.64+-7.0pp
Over/Under 2.51479262.6%1.78+-3.6pp

Steam Moves by Signal Strength

Hit rate when 3+ bookmakers move in the same direction

Strong
71.9%
1296/1802
Moderate
54.7%
857/1567
Early
50.4%
441/875
Weak
48.2%
410/851

50% baseline = coin flip · 60%+ = actionable signal

Accumulator Accuracy

Individual leg hit rate and ROI across all settled accumulators

Settled

206

Won

21

Lost

185

Acca Win Rate

10%

Leg Accuracy

35.9%

ROI

-55.8%

298 of 829 individual legs correct

Staked: 2060u · Returns: 911.0u · P&L: -1149.0u

By Tier

TierSettledWonLostWin RateLeg AccuracyROI
Bet of the Day38122631.6%41.8%-35.6%
Accumulator434399.3%42.2%-13.8%
Big Odds Acca370370%32.8%-100%
BTTS232218.7%30.8%-60.9%
Win Treble2021810%45.7%-32.4%
Over 2.5 Treble161156.3%41.8%-56.1%
Win & BTTS101-100%
Anytime Goalscorer140140%0%-100%
Card Betting140140%0%-100%

Dodged Bullets

20 saved

Matches where the bookmaker favourite lost — and our model warned you

Sassuolo v Como

17 AprSerie-AFT: 2-1

bet365

65%

vs

wagerbase

50%

SAVED

Man Utd v Leeds

13 AprPremier-LeagueFT: 1-2

bet365

65%

vs

wagerbase

48%

SAVED

Parma v Napoli

12 AprSerie-AFT: 1-1

bet365

63%

vs

wagerbase

45%

SAVED

Santa Clara v Rio Ave

11 AprPrimeira-LigaFT: 0-2

bet365

57%

vs

wagerbase

43%

SAVED

AVS v Guimaraes

11 AprPrimeira-LigaFT: 1-1

bet365

62%

vs

wagerbase

46%

SAVED

Middlesbrough v Portsmouth

11 AprChampionshipFT: 0-1

bet365

67%

vs

wagerbase

49%

SAVED

Real Sociedad v CD Alaves

11 AprLa-LigaFT: 3-3

bet365

58%

vs

wagerbase

49%

SAVED

Sheffield Wednesday v Leicester City

6 AprChampionshipFT: 1-1

bet365

67%

vs

wagerbase

48%

SAVED

Favourites where bet365 implied ≥ 55% but our model said < 50% — and the favourite lost

Activity Feed

448 items

All predictions, signals and picks — pending and settled

TimeTypeMatch / EntityDetailStatusP&L
26 Apr 18:45PredMarseille v NiceHome Win @ 1.50PENDING
26 Apr 15:30PredBorussia Dortmund v SC FreiburgHome Win @ 1.42PENDING
26 Apr 15:15PredRennes v NantesHome Win @ 1.44PENDING
26 Apr 14:00PredChelsea v LeedsHome Win @ 1.68PENDING
26 Apr 14:00PredChelsea v LeedsBTTS Yes @ 1.70PENDING
26 Apr 13:00PredDundee Utd v DundeeBTTS Yes @ 1.67PENDING
26 Apr 13:00PredLorient v StrasbourgDraw @ 3.30PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsMike van Duinen (EXC)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.59PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsAdrian Blake (UTR)shots_under 2.5 @ 1.67PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsNordin Bukala (FC )shots_under 1.5 @ 1.49PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsRick Meissen (EXC)shots_under 0.5 @ 1.81PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsAurelio Oehlers (FC )sot_under 0.5 @ 2.40PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsSimon Janssen (EXC)sot_over 0.5 @ 4.33PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsLuka Kulenović (HER)sot_under 1.5 @ 1.73PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsIvan Mesík (HER)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.78PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsGjivai Zechiël (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 1.57PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsIlias Bronkhorst (EXC)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.78PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsJan Žambůrek (HER)shots_under 1.5 @ 1.97PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsBenjamin Pauwels (FC )sot_over 0.5 @ 2.50PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsMario Engels (HER)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.78PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsRick Meissen (EXC)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.22PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsJerolldino Bergraaf (EXC)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.59PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsLequincio Zeefuik (HER)sot_under 1.5 @ 1.58PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsJoel Ideho (FC )sot_under 0.5 @ 2.31PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsDave Kwakman (FC )shots_under 1.5 @ 1.64PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsBryan Limbombe (HER)shots_under 3.5 @ 1.67PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsJannes Wieckhoff (HER)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.21PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsGyan de Regt (EXC)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.31PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsDamon Mirani (HER)shots_under 1.5 @ 1.49PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsMike van der Hoorn (UTR)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.32PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsAlec Van Hoorenbeeck (HER)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.40PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsYannick Leliendal (FC )shots_under 0.5 @ 2.11PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsRobin van Cruijsen (FC )sot_under 0.5 @ 1.73PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsAnthony Descotte (FC )sot_under 0.5 @ 2.50PENDING
26 Apr 12:00PropsBryan Limbombe (HER)sot_under 1.5 @ 1.49PENDING
25 Apr 18:45PredVerona v LecceDraw @ 3.00PENDING
25 Apr 16:45PredHeerenveen v Fortuna SittardHome Win @ 1.53PENDING
25 Apr 16:30PredCeltic v FalkirkBTTS Yes @ 1.67PENDING
25 Apr 16:30PredArsenal v NewcastleHome Win @ 1.50PENDING
25 Apr 16:15PredMan City v SouthamptonBTTS Yes @ 1.95PENDING
25 Apr 16:00PredBologna v RomaDraw @ 3.10PENDING
25 Apr 14:15PredGetafe v BarcelonaAway Win @ 1.55PENDING
25 Apr 14:00PredLiverpool v Crystal PalaceBTTS Yes @ 1.67PENDING
25 Apr 13:30PredMainz v Bayern MunichBTTS Yes @ 1.44PENDING
25 Apr 13:30PredMainz v Bayern MunichAway Win @ 1.53PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PredCD Alaves v MallorcaBTTS Yes @ 1.95PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsMoussa Soumano (NAC)shots_under 2.5 @ 1.89PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsAndre Ayew (NAC)shots_under 2.5 @ 1.73PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsEnes Mahmutović (NAC)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.15PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsÉdouard Michut (FOR)shots_under 1.5 @ 1.49PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsLuca Oyen (HEE)shots_under 2.5 @ 2.11PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsBoy Kemper (NAC)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.30PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsBoyd Lucassen (NAC)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.49PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsVasilios Zagaritis (HEE)shots_under 1.5 @ 1.67PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsSam Kersten (HEE)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.01PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsRingo Meerveld (HEE)sot_under 1.5 @ 1.58PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsDavid van der Werff (GRO)sot_over 0.5 @ 2.25PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsTygo Land (GRO)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.31PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsJorg Schreuders (GRO)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.40PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsMaxence Rivera (HEE)sot_over 1.5 @ 2.63PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsDavy Klaassen (AJA)shots_under 2.5 @ 1.81PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsAnel Ahmedhodžić (FEY)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.50PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsRaheem Sterling (FEY)shots_under 2.5 @ 2.31PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsLeo Sauer (FEY)shots_under 4.5 @ 2.21PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsTika de Jonge (GRO)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.39PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsJordan Bos (FEY)shots_under 2.5 @ 1.89PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsYounes Taha (GRO)sot_over 0.5 @ 1.62PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsDavid van der Werff (GRO)shots_under 1.5 @ 1.73PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsTyrique Mercera (GRO)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.31PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsOliver Braude (HEE)shots_under 1.5 @ 2.01PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsMaas Willemsen (HEE)shots_under 0.5 @ 2.59PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsMaas Willemsen (HEE)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.30PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsLuuk Brouwers (HEE)shots_under 4.5 @ 1.73PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsLuuk Brouwers (HEE)sot_under 1.5 @ 1.81PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsPhilip Brittijn (FOR)shots_under 1.5 @ 1.73PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsYassin Oukili (FOR)shots_under 1.5 @ 2.11PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsKamal Sowah (NAC)shots_under 1.5 @ 2.01PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsMohamed Nassoh (NAC)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.11PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsBrahim Ghalidi (NAC)shots_under 1.5 @ 2.50PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsPepijn Reulen (NAC)shots_under 2.5 @ 2.11PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsGonçalo Borges (FEY)shots_under 2.5 @ 2.21PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsJordan Bos (FEY)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.40PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsBart Nieuwkoop (FEY)shots_under 1.5 @ 1.97PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsAyase Ueda (FEY)sot_under 1.5 @ 2.01PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsAyase Ueda (FEY)Anytime Scorer @ 1.91PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsAymen Sliti (FEY)shots_under 2.5 @ 1.97PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsAnis Hadj Moussa (FEY)shots_under 5.5 @ 1.67PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsLuciano Valente (FEY)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.50PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsAnis Hadj Moussa (FEY)sot_under 1.5 @ 1.97PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsAymen Sliti (FEY)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.59PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsMarco Rente (GRO)shots_under 0.5 @ 1.81PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsThijs Kraaijeveld (FEY)shots_under 1.5 @ 1.97PENDING
25 Apr 12:00PropsMats Deijl (FEY)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.97PENDING
24 Apr 18:45PredNapoli v CremoneseHome Win @ 1.36PENDING
24 Apr 18:30PredRB Leipzig v Union BerlinHome Win @ 1.36PENDING
23 Apr 19:00PredPSV v PEC ZwolleHome Win @ 1.18PENDING
23 Apr 18:00PredRayo Vallecano v EspanyolBTTS Yes @ 1.95PENDING
23 Apr 17:00PredLevante v SevillaBTTS Yes @ 1.91PENDING
23 Apr 16:45PredGo Ahead Eagles v AZBTTS Yes @ 1.44PENDING
23 Apr 14:00PredInter Milan v ComoOver 2.5 @ 1.80PENDING

We track everything. Good and bad. 5,800 data points across 5 products. Every prediction, every signal, every gap is logged and settled. No cherry-picking. No hiding losses.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.