Model Accuracy
Full transparency. Every prediction tracked and settled.
Predictions
56.5%
Hit Rate
n = 713 (62 pending)
Steam Moves
54.8%
Hit Rate
n = 529
Props
59.6%
Hit Rate
n = 16869
ROI: +47.3%
Accumulators
16.5%
Leg Accuracy
n = 350 (38 pending)
Predicted probability vs actual win rate — a well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal
ECE
2.7%
Accuracy breakdown by prediction model type
| Model | Settled | Wins | Hit Rate | Avg Odds | Avg Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble | 669 | 375 | 56.1% | 1.78 | +-2.2pp |
| xG Ensemble | 36 | 24 | 66.7% | 1.65 | +2.8pp |
| NBA Combined | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1.77 | +9.4pp |
Three AI models compete daily — points for correct result (+3), scoreline (+5), BTTS (+1)
Claude
189
total points
Hit Rate
50%
Avg Pts
2.7
Scorelines
9
Grok
154
total points
Hit Rate
42.9%
Avg Pts
2.2
Scorelines
5
GPT-5
139
total points
Hit Rate
36.2%
Avg Pts
2.0
Scorelines
5
Hit rate breakdown across leagues
Hit rate across match result, BTTS, and over/under markets
| Market | Settled | Wins | Hit Rate | Avg Odds | Avg Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | 295 | 150 | 50.8% | 1.82 | +2.7pp |
| Match Result | 256 | 154 | 60.2% | 1.72 | +-6.3pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 162 | 99 | 61.1% | 1.79 | +-3.1pp |
Hit rate when 3+ bookmakers move in the same direction
50% baseline = coin flip · 60%+ = actionable signal
Player prop picks targeting bookmaker pricing edges
Props target high-odds value bets (edge ≥ 3pp). Win rate is intentionally lower — profitability comes from large payouts on correct picks.
Settled
16869
Win Rate
59.6%
ROI
+47.3%
Avg Odds
4.01
| Market | Settled | W | L | Hit Rate | ROI | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOT Under | 5070 | 3747 | 1323 | 74% | 13% | +666.39u |
| Shots Under | 5067 | 3692 | 1375 | 73% | 71% | +3597.39u |
| sot_over | 2773 | 733 | 2040 | 26% | 164% | +4557.33u |
| Assists Under | 1917 | 1633 | 284 | 85% | 0% | -8.37u |
| Anytime Scorer | 794 | 78 | 716 | 10% | -44% | -351.58u |
| Cards | 501 | 64 | 437 | 13% | -40% | -202.60u |
| assists_over | 470 | 46 | 424 | 10% | -38% | -176.60u |
| shots_over | 138 | 44 | 94 | 32% | -40% | -55.83u |
| Shots on Target O/U | 93 | 22 | 71 | 24% | -20% | -18.97u |
| Assists O/U | 45 | 2 | 43 | 4% | -67% | -30.00u |
| Shots O/U | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | +0.68u |
Individual leg hit rate and ROI across all settled accumulators
Settled
350
Won
24
Lost
326
Acca Win Rate
7%
Leg Accuracy
16.5%
ROI
-71%
232 of 1408 individual legs correct
Staked: 3500u · Returns: 1013.4u · P&L: -2486.6u
By Tier
| Tier | Settled | Won | Lost | Win Rate | Leg Accuracy | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet of the Day | 52 | 14 | 38 | 26.9% | 18.9% | -45.9% |
| Accumulator | 64 | 4 | 60 | 6.3% | 20.4% | -42.1% |
| Big Odds Acca | 53 | 0 | 53 | 0% | 13.1% | -100% |
| BTTS | 39 | 2 | 37 | 5.1% | 22% | -76.9% |
| Win Treble | 34 | 2 | 32 | 5.9% | 23% | -60.2% |
| Over 2.5 Treble | 25 | 2 | 23 | 8% | 18.3% | -45.5% |
| Win & BTTS | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 0% | -100% |
| Anytime Goalscorer | 44 | 0 | 44 | 0% | 0% | -100% |
| Card Betting | 32 | 0 | 32 | 0% | 0% | -100% |
Matches where the bookmaker favourite lost — and our model warned you
Torino v Juventus
24 MaySerie-AFT: 2-2
bet365
67%
wagerbase
48%
Brighton v Man Utd
24 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 0-3
bet365
56%
wagerbase
35%
Liverpool v Brentford
24 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 1-1
bet365
56%
wagerbase
36%
Girona v Elche
23 MayLa-LigaFT: 1-1
bet365
57%
wagerbase
44%
Hull v Middlesbrough
23 MayChampionshipFT: 1-0
bet365
57%
wagerbase
43%
Bournemouth v Man City
19 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 1-1
bet365
58%
wagerbase
40%
Lyon v Lens
17 MayLigue-1FT: 0-4
bet365
58%
wagerbase
33%
Brentford v Crystal Palace
17 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 2-2
bet365
60%
wagerbase
48%
Favourites where bet365 implied ≥ 55% but our model said < 50% — and the favourite lost
All predictions, signals and picks — pending and settled
| Time | Type | Match / Entity | Detail | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↑ (4 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 19 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↓ (4 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 19 Jun 19:01 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↓ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 19 Jun 19:01 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↑ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 19 Jun 17:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 19 Jun 16:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↓ (4 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 19 Jun 16:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (7 books, Strong) | PENDING | — |
| 19 Jun 16:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↓ (9 books, Strong) | PENDING | — |
| 19 Jun 06:01 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 18 Jun 20:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 18 Jun 20:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↓ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 18 Jun 15:01 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↓ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 18 Jun 14:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↓ (11 books, Strong) | PENDING | — |
| 18 Jun 14:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (11 books, Strong) | PENDING | — |
| 18 Jun 04:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (7 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 18 Jun 04:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↓ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 17 Jun 17:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 17 Jun 09:01 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (4 books, Strong) | PENDING | — |
| 17 Jun 08:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↓ (4 books, Strong) | PENDING | — |
| 17 Jun 00:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↓ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 16 Jun 00:01 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↓ (4 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 15 Jun 22:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 15 Jun 22:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↓ (5 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 15 Jun 21:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 15 Jun 21:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↓ (5 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 15 Jun 06:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 15 Jun 06:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (6 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 15 Jun 06:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↓ (6 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 15 Jun 06:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (9 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 23:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (4 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 23:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (5 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 21:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (4 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 21:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↑ (4 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 21:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Draw ↓ (3 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 20:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↑ (7 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 20:30 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↓ (5 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 20:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Away ↓ (7 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 20:00 | Steam | Almería vs Málaga | Home ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | PENDING | — |
| 14 Jun 10:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↓ (11 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 14 Jun 10:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (11 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 14 Jun 08:01 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (15 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 14 Jun 07:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (12 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 14 Jun 07:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (7 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 14 Jun 07:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (3 books, Weak) | WON | — |
| 14 Jun 02:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (11 books, Weak) | WON | — |
| 14 Jun 02:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (11 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 13 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 13 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↓ (5 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 13 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (3 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 13 Jun 19:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 13 Jun 19:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↓ (5 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 13 Jun 19:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 13 Jun 17:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (4 books, Weak) | WON | — |
| 13 Jun 17:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↓ (4 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 13 Jun 16:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 13 Jun 16:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (5 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 13 Jun 15:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (3 books, Weak) | WON | — |
| 13 Jun 15:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (4 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 13 Jun 15:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (3 books, Weak) | WON | — |
| 13 Jun 09:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↑ (3 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 13 Jun 05:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (9 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 23:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (4 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 23:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↓ (5 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 23:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (5 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 21:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (5 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 21:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (10 books, Weak) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 20:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (3 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↑ (3 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (18 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (18 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 18:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (7 books, Strong) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 18:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (8 books, Strong) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 18:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (13 books, Strong) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 18:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (12 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 16:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↑ (4 books, Weak) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 16:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (6 books, Strong) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 16:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↓ (7 books, Strong) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 16:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↓ (4 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 16:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (13 books, Strong) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 16:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↓ (10 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 15:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↓ (3 books, Weak) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 15:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (13 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 14:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (4 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 12 Jun 14:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↓ (27 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 12 Jun 14:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (24 books, Strong) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (4 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 19:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (4 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 12:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↓ (29 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 12:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (27 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 12:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↑ (11 books, Weak) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 11:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (8 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 11:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↓ (13 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 11 Jun 08:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↓ (3 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 08:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (9 books, Strong) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 08:00 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↓ (10 books, Moderate) | LOST | — |
| 11 Jun 07:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Draw ↓ (14 books, Moderate) | WON | — |
| 11 Jun 07:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Away ↓ (14 books, Strong) | LOST | — |
| 11 Jun 07:30 | Steam | Málaga vs Almería | Home ↑ (14 books, Strong) | WON | — |
| 10 Jun 12:00 | Props | Adrián Niño (MAL) | sot_under 1.5 @ 1.64 | WON | — |
| 10 Jun 12:00 | Props | Manuel Fuster (LAS) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.64 | WON | — |
We track everything. Good and bad. 18,461 data points across 5 products. Every prediction, every signal, every gap is logged and settled. No cherry-picking. No hiding losses.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.