The Verdict
The xG doesn't fully support the market — 1. FC Köln actually create more (1.5 xG/game) than FC St. Pauli (0.83). 1. FC Köln at 2.83 could offer value. With 55 bookmakers unable to separate these two, the draw at 3.43 (29% implied) deserves serious consideration.
Best bet: 1. FC Köln to win at 2.83
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Friday 17 April at 18:30 | Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli sit 16th in the Bundesliga on 25 points. Their visitors 1. FC Köln are 13th on 30. FC St. Pauli's recent form reads LDLLD. 1. FC Köln come in with WDDDL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | FC St. Pauli | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 13th |
| Points | 25 | 30 |
| Record | 6W 7D 16L | 7W 9D 13L |
| Goals Scored | 25 (0.9/game) | 43 (1.5/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 50 (1.7/game) | 50 (1.7/game) |
| Goal Difference | -25 | -7 |
| xG | 25 (0.83/game) | 43.6 (1.5/game) |
| xGA | 47.8 (1.59/game) | 46.4 (1.6/game) |
| Form | LDLLD | WDDDL |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli Win | 2.82 | 35% | 2.82 | 36% |
| Draw | 3.43 | 29% | 3.48 | 30% |
| 1. FC Köln Win | 2.83 | 35% | 2.79 | 36% |
Based on 55 bookmakers. Agreement: 42% lean toward 1. FC Köln.
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