Saturday 25 April at 11:30 | Premier League
The Verdict
The market can't split these two, and it's hard to argue. 54 bookmakers see a coin-flip, with the draw at 3.78 looking the most likely single outcome. Watch for Ollie Watkins (16 goals, 18.63 xG) as the standout individual threat.
Match Context
Fulham sit 12th in the Premier League on 45 points. Their visitors Aston Villa are 4th on 58. Fulham's recent form reads DLWDL. Aston Villa come in with WDWLL.
Season Performance Comparison
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 4th |
| Points | 45 | 58 |
| Record | 13W 6D 14L | 17W 7D 9L |
| Goals Scored | 43 (1.3/game) | 47 (1.4/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 46 (1.4/game) | 41 (1.2/game) |
| Goal Difference | -3 | +6 |
| xG | 43.8 (1.46/game) | 41.8 (1.39/game) |
| xGA | 46.8 (1.56/game) | 43.7 (1.46/game) |
| Form | DLWDL | WDWLL |
xG Deep Dive
Fulham have scored 43 goals from 43.8 xG this season — wasteful in front of goal, underperforming xG by 2.8. Aston Villa: 47 goals from 41.8 xG — on track with xG.
Game State Performance
Fulham xG trend (last 6 matches): 2.2 vs Manchester City, 1.6 vs Brentford, 1.2 vs Everton, 0.7 vs Aston Villa, 2.0 vs Southampton, 0.3 vs Chelsea.
Aston Villa xG trend (last 6 matches): 0.3 vs Manchester United, 1.7 vs Tottenham, 1.1 vs Bournemouth, 1.3 vs Fulham, 1.9 vs Manchester City, 3.1 vs Newcastle United.
Key Player Matchups
Fulham
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez | 12 | 14.41 | 4.08 | 96 | 38 |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 8 | 6.84 | 0.78 | 40 | 31 |
| Adama Traoré | 2 | 5.66 | 6.42 | 39 | 36 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe | 6 | 5.26 | 2.43 | 37 | 34 |
| Alex Iwobi | 9 | 5.02 | 8.46 | 68 | 38 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins | 16 | 18.63 | 3.88 | 84 | 38 |
| Morgan Rogers | 8 | 8.22 | 8.15 | 55 | 37 |
| Jhon Durán | 7 | 5.1 | 0.23 | 31 | 20 |
| Marco Asensio | 3 | 4.56 | 1.26 | 24 | 13 |
| John McGinn | 1 | 3.79 | 3.48 | 31 | 34 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham Win | 2.67 | 38% | 2.59 | 38% |
| Draw | 3.78 | 26% | 3.83 | 27% |
| Aston Villa Win | 2.77 | 36% | 2.83 | 38% |
Based on 54 bookmakers. Agreement: 70% lean toward Fulham.
Odds correct at time of writing. Check latest prices on wagerbase. View full predictions for Premier League.